How will the Affordable Care Act affect employment?

Opponents of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act contend that the law, recently affirmed by the Supreme Court, will make small businesses think twice about taking on new workers, especially if the small biz is near the 50-employee threshold that triggers requirements under the ACA.

Nursing students working in the simulation lab. Photo: Lower Columbia College

But some writers lately have looked on the bright side of the law, noting that a greater demand for primary care and other services may ripple throughout health care systems, creating more jobs for roles ranging from physicians to pharmacists to food-service workers and software designers.  And while it’s early to assess the impact of the law, which is slowly being phased in, you might want to start nosing around your area’s hospitals and health care systems, along with insurance companies, IT offices and other businesses that might see a boost from the ACA.

Monster.com, for example, writes that a shortage of primary-care physicians will lead to increased demand not only for M.D.s but for nurse practitioners, physicians’ assistants and other advance-practice nurses — leaving a shortage of bedside R.N.s which may need to be filled by aides and other unlicensed workers.  The Baltimore Sun reports similar concerns from health system heads in that area; you might want to check in with executives at your area hospitals, nursing schools and community colleges:  Are plans afoot to boost cooperative training programs or otherwise backfill the anticipated need?

And how is the private practice business model changing?  Here’s a Louisville Courier-Journal piece about a mother-daughter practice run by two nurse practitioners; they provide primary care services without an M.D. on staff; as the story notes, expanding the role of non-M.D. professionals is fraught with a lot of tension in the health-care industry; you might check with professional associations in your state about any proposals to change the scope of these roles in light of anticipated doctor shortages.

And as Inc. columnist Gene Marks points out, the ACA could prove a boon for savvy entrepreneurs, in fields from payment processing to records software to landscaping, as the health care industry continues to be a growth market.  And the medical equipment supplies and manufacturing industries employ a lot of people at some fairly hefty wages, according to this Bureau of Labor Statistics report; that’s another field worth looking into.

This IBISWorld newsletter highlights industries the research firm expects to be affected by health care reform; it offers other angles you might pursue, such as drug stores.  And that notion in turn leads me to wonder about real estate; will more land be snapped up for the building of additional health care facilities, pharmacies, rehab centers and related venues?  The consulting firm Deloitte, it turns out, wondered the same thing; this 10-page PDF “Can health care rescue real estate?” raises some interesting questions and is good background reading if you decide to pursue that route.